Days of cover, licences, gas: the controls that move the rating

A minimum cover set per depot and product, with a trigger that starts a defined response, reviewed weekly at exco alongside the cargo schedule. Where a second import point or terminal is available, a standing arrangement for it, tested. After the March 2026 diesel disruptions, a pre-buying watch: unusual forecourt demand is itself an early warning.¹⁷ The number of days is the board's call today, but the draft Strategic Petroleum Stocks Policy proposes a mandatory 21-day buffer for licensed wholesalers and importers, so a control built now should be built to that standard.²⁰

Cover is measured but no trigger is defined, so the first exco discussion happens when a depot is already short. The second-terminal arrangement, where one exists, is verbal.

Days of cover by depot and product, this week and the trigger, against the proposed 21-day standard.²⁰ The last date a cargo missed its window and what happened. The contract with the alternative terminal.

A board-approved treasury policy that says what FX exposure on cargoes is acceptable and how it is covered, the slate position and facility headroom reported monthly, and a working-capital model that shows the cash effect of a late cargo before it happens. For diesel, a documented pricing basis, given the regulator has said the mechanism is under review.¹⁷

Hedging is ad hoc and known to treasury alone. The slate is a line in the management accounts nobody outside finance reads. Working capital problems surface at the bank before they surface in the model.

The hedging policy and the current position against its limits. Headroom against the next two cargoes. The slate balance trend over twelve months.

A costed scenario at 1.5× and 2× gas cost on the board agenda, a conversion decision date set in advance, alternative-fuel permits applied for before they are needed, and a seat in the industrial gas users' collective purchasing discussions.¹²

One line in the register, owned by procurement, rated medium, with "monitor supplier communications" as the treatment. The decision date is the day the supplier gives notice.

The scenario, the decision date and who signs it. The permit application reference. The supply agreement's force majeure and allocation clauses, read.

Every licence condition, renewal date and ownership condition in one obligations register with a named owner, attested quarterly by the owners and annually by the CEO. Transactions screened against licence conditions before signature.^3,7,14

Licences in a filing cabinet or a shared drive. Conditions discovered at inspection or at the Competition Commission. Two people each believe the other owns the renewal.

The register, filtered to renewals in the next twelve months. The last quarter's attestation. The screening memo from the last transaction.

Loss ratio per depot tracked monthly against metering tolerance, every variance above threshold investigated and closed, pipeline receipts reconciled to deliveries, and internal audit testing the reconciliation itself.

Losses absorbed into cost of sales and not reconciled. The metering tolerance is known to the depot manager only. Internal audit reviews the procedure document.

Loss ratio by depot for twelve months against tolerance. Open variance investigations and their age. Internal audit's last test of the reconciliation.

Directors briefed annually on their personal duty under NEMA section 34, spill and major-incident drills run and recorded, insurer survey recommendations implemented and closed within the year, and renewal terms and exclusions presented to the board rather than filed.¹

An incident response plan that was last tested at commissioning. Insurer recommendations open for years. Cover reduced at renewal without the board being told.

The date and record of the last drill. The insurer survey and the status of each recommendation. This year's renewal terms, exclusions and limits against the worst-case loss.

The tax modelled to 2030 at Phase 2 rates in the budget and in every capex hurdle rate, allowance utilisation tracked, and the number treated as a strategic cost in the board's asset-life decisions.⁵

A tax line, accrued by finance, with no link to investment decisions. The 31% increase in 2026 arrived as a surprise in the management accounts.

The 2030 model and its assumptions. The hurdle rate with and without carbon. Allowance utilisation for the last tax period.

Every single point of failure named on a map. For each, a documented alternative, which for the inland pipeline usually means road, with contracted call-off capacity and a tested activation. Supplier financial health reviewed with the same discipline as customer credit.

Dependency known; the alternative "would be arranged if needed". It has not been tested. Supplier financial distress is learned from the news.

The map. The contract and permit for each alternative. The last test date and result. The supplier review schedule.

Operational technology in the asset register and owned by a named executive, OT network segregated from corporate IT and the segregation tested, an incident exercised with the terminal operator, and control-system patch status reported alongside IT.

OT is engineering's, security is IT's, and neither owns the boundary. The last penetration test covered email. Control systems run software nobody is allowed to patch.

The OT asset list and its owner. The segregation test result. The incident exercise report. Patch status on control systems.

A signpost list reviewed annually by the board: the fuel price review, the SANPC Bill, new-energy vehicle share, the carbon trajectory. Asset lives and site investment tested against deregulation and EV scenarios before capital is committed.^1,10,18

The strategy assumes today's price mechanism and demand indefinitely. The signposts are read in the press. Petrol-sized assets are approved on petrol-era volumes.

The signpost list and the date of its last review. The scenario test attached to the last site investment. Who owns the list.